Homer, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXAK68 PAFC 230123
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Wednesday)...

The dominant weather feature in Alaska is a strong high amplitude
ridge which extends from the north-central Pacific to the eastern
Bering Sea and over the southern AK mainland. Some high clouds
are moving over top of the ridge into Southcentral. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevail. Temperatures are
chilly for this time of year, in the teens to 20s for of the low
elevations. Much warmer air moving up and over the ridge is
arriving at higher elevations of Southcentral this afternoon, with
temperatures rising above freezing for elevations above 3000 feet.
Localized gap winds persist through the typical coastal communities
(Kodiak City, Seward, Whittier, Valdez), supported by tight
pressure gradients between a strong surface high extending from
Southwest AK to the Interior and lower pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska. With the warmer temperatures aloft, a combination of
downslope warming and mixing down of warmer air is leading to some
balmy temperatures, with Kodiak City in the mid to upper 40s and
Seward/Whittier in the mid to upper 30s.

The upper ridge axis will gradually rotate southeastward, pushing
back down into the North Pacific by late Monday. Low level
temperatures will continue to warm through Monday, with the
western Chugach Mountains and Kenai Mountains rising well above
freezing. Some of the warmest air will move across Kodiak Island.
With continued gusty westerly winds, temperatures could approach
50 degrees, which would set a daily record high. Valley locations
across Southcentral will largely remain below freezing. Meanwhile,
a series of upper level vorticity-maxima riding along the top of
the ridge will cross interior Southcentral Monday, leading to
light snowfall along the Alaska Range and spreading southward into
the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper Basin. Cold air
advection and gradual amplification of the upper level flow will
cause snow to spread southward to the Talkeetna Mountains and
southern Copper Valley Monday afternoon through Monday night. The
deep westerly flow will favor the Wrangell Mountains and central
to eastern Copper Basin for snow accumulation. Winter Weather
Advisories have been hoisted from Glennallen northeastward along
the Tok Cutoff for the heaviest snow and highest accumulation.
Some very light snow may make it down to Anchorage and the Mat
Valley Monday night. The best chance of some very light accumulation
will be right along and near the mountains. Though the airmass
will be cooling as precipitation arrives, there could be a mix
with rain and freezing rain to start.

A series of much stronger short-waves will amplify the pattern
further Tuesday through Wednesday, with short-waves digging
southeastward across Southcentral. Similar to last week, very cold
Arctic air will surge across Southcentral and the Gulf Tuesday
through Wednesday. The initial arrival of the Arctic front Tuesday
morning will likely lead to areas of light snow. However, expect
drying out from west to east across the region through the day
Tuesday. The biggest impact will once again be the winds. Similar
to last week, the low level flow will be out of the northwest,
which will initially favor Kodiak Island and the western Gulf as
well as Seward and Whittier for some of the strongest winds. As a
low settles over the northeast Gulf (near Yakutat) Wednesday,
winds will really ramp up in Valdez/Thompson Pass and the Copper
River Delta. As winds first arrive, blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will be a threat, especially for locations which
receive fresh snowfall (including the Copper Valley). This airmass
looks even colder than the one that moved in last week, so despite
the widespread windy conditions would expect temperatures to fall
more quickly, with single digits to teens commonplace by
Wednesday and wind chills dropping well below zero for much of
the region.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Kuskokwim Delta
and western Kuskokwim Valley from 5AM to 10 PM Monday for total
ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. This advisory has
been expanded today to include the Goodnews Bay area.

*A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Naknek, King
 Salmon, Iliamna, and the northern Alaska Peninsula from 11AM
 Monday to 3AM Tuesday for snow accumulations up to one inch and
 ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

Discussion:

The 500 mb pattern is characterized by impressive ridging
extending from south of the Aleutians and points northeastward
over mainland Alaska. While several shortwaves are riding over top
the ridge, the main weather player will be an arctic trough
working southward down the western Alaska coastline Monday
morning, which will flatten the ridge and force it to take an
northeast to southwest tilt. Ahead of the system, relatively warm
westerly to southwesterly flow from a strong surface high south of
the Aleutians working in tandem with the incoming frontal wave
will moderate temperatures at the precipitation onset. The latest
guidance has trended, on average, about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday as precipitation moves across the region, with some of
the MOS warming areas like Bethel well into the upper 30s for a
time Monday afternoon. If this is indeed the case and warmer air
than originally thought filters into the region, ice amounts will
be around a glaze to a few hundredths of an inch at best.
Freezing rain is also a self limiting precipitation type, meaning
the latent heat release during the freezing process will help to
warm the surrounding airmass. Also, if more sleet falls before a
potential changeover to rain, that will also limit ice
accumulation. The column should rapidly and dynamically cool as
the arctic trough works its way over the region and mix or
transition any lingering precipitation to a short period of light
snow as the system departs Tuesday morning.

Another change from the previous forecast package is that with a
slower progression of the arctic trough, a slower (3 hours or so)
onset of precipitation is to be expected as well. The trough digs
and amplifies through Tuesday afternoon and takes a neutral tilt
by Wednesday morning. Brutally cold arctic air is expected to
filter in behind this system, and temperatures will drop to the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta by Tuesday before all of
Southwest drops even colder later in the workweek.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will be entrenched within a
much colder airmass over the latter half of next week. Behind a
passing arctic trough on Tuesday and Wednesday, single digit to
below zero temperatures will be widespread Thursday morning, with
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing
temperatures as low as 20 below. Because we`re moving into the
later winter months, the increasing diurnal cycle will likely play
a role in minimizing colder temperatures across Southcentral,
though parts of the Copper River Basin could still flirt with cold
weather advisory criteria within any clearing.

Gusty winds and gusty gap winds should be ongoing Thursday
morning across the Alaska Peninsula and for much of Southcentral.
Winds will slowly diminish into the latter half of the Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, weak troughing will remain from the ALCAN border
into Southwest Alaska. Winds will be milder Friday into the
weekend as flow become more zonal.

All of the active weather will flip to the Aleutians Friday into
the weekend as a North Pacific trough and several small waves
overspread the chain Friday into the weekend. Expect widespread
rain chances with the gustiest winds residing over the Western and
Central Aleutians. By late Saturday into Sunday, what remains of
a colder airmass over the interior will spill across Southwest
Alaska into the Bering before temperature moderate and warm late
Sunday.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist through
the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds are expected on Tuesday.

&&
$$